Friendlies · Friendly International
Brazilvs
Egypt
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET · Cleveland Browns Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Brazil
46%
Draw
Draw
28%
Away
Egypt
25%
Model pick: Brazil
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 46% (T−48h) to 46% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Brazil baseline already reflects home advantage and stronger historical strength. Recent form shows Brazil mixed (2W–2L in last 5, but wins vs weaker opponents; Egypt in recent slump with 3 draws and 1 loss in last 5). Component models show sharp disagreement (Elo 32% pH vs xG 38% vs Dixon-Coles 49%), signaling low conviction. No injuries on either side. Neutral venue (Cleveland) slightly dampens home edge but does not reverse it. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.3pp) and xG reflects Brazil's marginal form edge and tournament context; Egypt's recent draw-heavy form and away record warrant sli
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:25 PM
c41865c6c31cf32eae0fd33c28546299275e88c25a2a98e12ed9928ebc65360c
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.08 — 1.52
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +56 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.34 — 1.31
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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