Friendlies · Friendly International
Colombiavs
Jordan
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Colombia
62%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
Jordan
16%
Model pick: Colombia
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 62% (T−48h) to 62% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and aligns with xG; Elo is a significant outlier (32% pH vs 63% xG), suggesting model disagreement on Colombia's true strength. Colombia's recent form is strong (3W-2D in last 5, including 6-3 and 4-0 wins), while Jordan shows 3 consecutive losses in competitive play. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineup uncertainty, conservative adjustment: slight downward nudge to pH (−0.5pp) and pD (+1pp) to reflect Elo's caution, but remain anchored to the baseline given sharp component divergence. Low confidence reflects the model discord.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:46 PM
0e8b05b606696ff55400a8bd1e775e330a1b5ecca35394670636e992acde2946
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.41 — 1.69
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +55 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.87 — 1.63
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T12:00:46.444Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.