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Friendlies · Friendly International

Armenia crestArmeniavsKazakhstan crestKazakhstan

Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Armenia

25%

Draw

Draw

28%

Away

Kazakhstan

47%

Model pick: Kazakhstan

Expected goals: 0.9—1.5(total 2.4)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%25%25%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 25% (T−48h) to 25% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline reflects sharp model disagreement (xG heavily favors away; Elo favors home; Dixon-Coles splits the difference). Recent form shows both teams fragile: Armenia 1W–3L in last 5 with heavy defeats; Kazakhstan 1W–3L–1D with similar struggles. Home venue provides modest edge (~2pp to pH) but neither team shows convincing form trajectory. No injuries reported. Conservative hold near baseline given low conviction across components and fixture-stage uncertainty.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:29 AM

0ee7181392376ee66465b68bcd4b1bfa3aa34ddfa8eccc524faceedb02ad57db

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 25%D 28%A 47%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 24%D 24%A 52%

xG: 0.88 — 1.47

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 30%D 44%A 26%

Elo gap: +21 pts

xG-Poisson

H 17%D 21%A 61%

Expected goals: 0.94 — 1.97

LLM contextual review

H 26%D 28%A 47%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 41/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:29.599Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

27cef52f066e436222eb326b37dd8d69707f87c4395786eda7c9a2607d79e6f8
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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