Friendlies · Friendly International
Curaçaovs
Aruba
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET · Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Curaçao
41%
Draw
Draw
26%
Away
Aruba
33%
Lean: Curaçao
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 41% (T−48h) to 41% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Curaçao home advantage and recent 5-1 away win support modest upward pH adjustment (+1.6pp). Aruba's recent form is mixed (two strong home wins vs weaker opponents, but heavy loss to same opponent Curaçao beat). xG model is a significant outlier (72% away) — likely noise given small-sample friendly context and weak opponent quality in Aruba's recent wins. Elo's elevated draw probability (43%) reflects competitive history; baseline blend is more reliable. No injuries on either side. Low confidence due to friendly-match volatility and sparse recent head-to-head data; baseline remains the anchor.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:14 AM
5a20a49c6fa780cd47a37ee95548ac6a6f9ddd0a52f224c0b04cdafcb6697fff
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.21 — 2.07
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +117 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.37 — 3.14
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 41/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T00:00:14.434Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.