Friendlies · Friendly International
Armeniavs
Moldova
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Armenia
39%
Draw
Draw
30%
Away
Moldova
31%
Lean: Armenia
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 39% (T−48h) to 39% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Armenia shows mixed recent form (2L, 1W in last 5) but plays at home with a modest Elo advantage (+74). Moldova's form is worse (1D, 4L in last 5) and they conceded heavily in recent qualifiers. No injuries on either side. Component models show meaningful disagreement (Elo favours draws at 44%, xG favours home at 45%), signalling low conviction; baseline blend is reasonable. Small upward adjustment to pH (+2pp) reflects home advantage and Moldova's poor away record; slight downward adjustment to pA (−3pp) reflects Moldova's recent collapse. Friendly context and T−48h uncertainty warrant conser
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:45 AM
929ead8195fddc64970875893e34aeda7b8e83f465c18feaeff2844489ec7d28
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.64 — 1.51
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +74 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.02 — 1.73
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 45/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:00:45.920Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.