Friendlies · Friendly International
Argentinavs
Honduras
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET · Kyle Field,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Argentina
71%
Draw
Draw
20%
Away
Honduras
9%
Model pick: Argentina
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 71% (T−48h) to 71% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline is heavily weighted toward Dixon-Coles (0.81), which shows strong home conviction (79.7% pH). Elo model is a major outlier (34.9% pH, 43.7% pD), suggesting structural disagreement about Argentina's true strength relative to Honduras in a neutral-venue friendly context. Recent form shows Argentina dominant (4W-1D in last 5, strong GD), Honduras mixed (3W-2L, volatile). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineup uncertainty, the sharp Elo-Dixon-Coles divergence warrants conservative micro-adjustments only; staying near baseline avoids false precision. Slight upward nudge to pH (+0
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:24 AM
a474f42b9cf1fb03a6d49cf5f2d9a5bd8d3751655502145ddc37775115565511
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.18 — 0.39
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +85 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.03 — 0.77
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 42/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T00:00:24.336Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.