Friendlies · Friendly International
Peruvs
Spain
Kickoff: Monday, June 8, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Peru
15%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Spain
60%
Model pick: Spain
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 15% (T−48h) to 15% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Peru's recent form is poor (1D–3L in last 5), but Spain's dominant streak (5W, +19 GD) is against weaker opposition in Nations League qualifiers, not direct evidence of superiority in a friendly. Elo and xG align closely on Spain's edge; Dixon-Coles is more pessimistic on Peru. At T−48h with no injuries and lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest +1.6pp to Peru's pH to reflect home-venue buffer and friendly-match volatility, slight −1pp to pA to account for Spain's recent form being inflated by weak opponents. Confidence is low because friendly matches are inherently noisy and squ
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:19 AM
a7287f58b1ffc855256f086425e9669fa6cc7a7f73a61ac8173765b046ceb762
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.95 — 2.43
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: -14 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.79 — 1.99
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:19.507Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.