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Friendlies · Friendly International

Argentina crestArgentinavsIceland crestIceland

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET · Jordan-Hare Stadium,

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Argentina

83%

Draw

Draw

13%

Away

Iceland

4%

Model pick: Argentina

Expected goals: 3.6—0.4(total 4.0)
Upset risk: 4/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%83%83%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 83% (T−48h) to 83% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows extreme home conviction (0.936 pH), while Elo is far more cautious (0.422 pH, 168-point Elo gap). Argentina's recent form is strong (4W-1D in last 5), but Iceland has lost 3 of last 5 with a 3–5 defeat to Portugal. No injuries on either side. The sharp model disagreement (114pp spread on pH) signals low conviction; baseline already reflects this via heavy Dixon-Coles weighting. Small downward adjustment on pH (−1.8pp) and modest upward on pA (+1.2pp) to acknowledge Elo's skepticism and friendly-match volatility, while respecting the ba

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 12:00:13 AM

fddbec97c478d95094c953fa9067c691368966097c3a6ee2072c4ffd5b3a8c29

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 84%D 12%A 4%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 94%D 5%A 1%

xG: 3.64 — 0.33

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 42%D 42%A 16%

Elo gap: +168 pts

xG-Poisson

H 89%D 8%A 3%

Expected goals: 3.19 — 0.49

LLM contextual review

H 82%D 13%A 5%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T00:00:13.862Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

132165b4f3e396d271093d4ead1ae29482f68fa49007d3e0f668d1f8a56b0e87
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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