Friendlies · Friendly International
Portugalvs
Nigeria
Kickoff: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Portugal
47%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Nigeria
24%
Model pick: Portugal
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 47% (T−48h) to 47% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Portugal home win at 50%. However, Elo (65-point advantage) and xG models diverge sharply—Elo leans draw (44%), xG leans Nigeria upset (37.5%)—signaling low conviction. Portugal's recent form is mixed (1L, 1D in last 2 competitive matches) while Nigeria shows stronger momentum (3W in last 4, including recent AFCON qualifier wins). At T−48h with no lineup data and no injuries, conservative adjustment: slight uptick to pH (+0.7pp) reflecting Portugal's home venue and Elo rating edge, slight downward pressure on pD (−0.8pp)
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 12:00:20 PM
09075f150639c0ecbc9a5805b0ff4c58b9ea7e917e73050712dffedac6e03ecd
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.06 — 1.42
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +65 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.36 — 1.37
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T12:00:20.495Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.