Greece's recent form is poor (3 losses in last 4 matches, all in qualifying), while Italy shows strong momentum (4 wins in last 5). However, the component models show sharp disagreement: xG heavily favors Italy (54.3%), while Elo leans toward draws (44.3%), and Dixon-Coles is more balanced. This disagreement signals low conviction. The baseline already reflects Italy's structural advantage (Elo diff +32). At T−48h with no injuries and a friendly context (lower stakes, possible rotation), we make only modest adjustments: slight boost to home pH to reflect home-venue effect in a low-stakes match

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM