UEFA Champions League · Semi-finals
Paris Saint Germainvs
Bayern München
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET · Parc des Princes, Paris
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Paris Saint Germain
43%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Bayern München
35%
Lean: Paris Saint Germain
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
PSG shows mixed recent form (3W-1D-1L) with defensive fragility, while Bayern is in exceptional form (5W in last 5, +13 GD). Elo's heavy draw weighting (44%) conflicts sharply with Dixon-Coles/xG consensus (~18% draw), signalling low conviction. Bayern's injury count (16) is substantially higher than PSG's (4), but API notes suggest many are U21/academy entries — weight cautiously. Home advantage and PSG's slight xG edge warrant modest downward adjustment to away probability; confidence is low given model disagreement and injury data opacity.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:46:07 AM
56c5d1669b622d96c9b0a5fa8add37adaff93f0fa888db83c3941c8636ed7fa8
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.66 — 3.32
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +1 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.63 — 2.36
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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