Friendlies · Friendly International
Boliviavs
Scotland
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET · Sports Illustrated Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Bolivia
35%
Draw
Draw
27%
Away
Scotland
37%
Lean: Scotland · close call (2pp margin)
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 35% (T−48h) to 35% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Scotland shows stronger recent form (3W in last 5, including away wins and clean sheets) versus Bolivia's mixed record (2W-2L in last 5). However, component models diverge sharply (xG favors Scotland 55%, Elo favors draw 44%, Dixon-Coles favors Bolivia 37%), signaling low conviction. No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest upward shift to Scotland's away probability (+2pp) and slight reduction to Bolivia's home edge (−2pp), staying well within ±8pp guardrails. Baseline blend remains most reliable given model disagreement.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:13 PM
08028879f2576ebe0ce57f027ae82bcdc090f0aa8f7f9508a39fa3486e900a78
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.29 — 1.36
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +14 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.01 — 1.77
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:13.221Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.