Morocco shows strong recent form (5 consecutive wins, 10–2 GF/GA in Dec 2025), but Elo model signals meaningful caution (67-point gap, only 33% pH) — likely reflecting historical strength differential. Norway's recent record is mixed (3W–1D in competitive play, but mostly vs. weaker opposition). At T−48h with no injuries and sharp model disagreement (Dixon-Coles 71% vs Elo 33%), conservative adjustment: modest downward shift on pH (−1.6pp) and upward on pA (+1.1pp) to respect Elo's structural skepticism, while keeping pD stable. Friendly context and Morocco's momentum justify staying close to

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM