Friendlies · Friendly International
Romaniavs
Wales
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET · Stadionul Steaua, Bucharest
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Romania
56%
Draw
Draw
27%
Away
Wales
17%
Model pick: Romania
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 56% (T−48h) to 56% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.564. Elo and xG diverge sharply (Elo 31.5% vs xG 43.2% away), signaling low conviction. Romania's recent form is mixed (2W–3L, including a 0–3 home loss to a strong opponent), while Wales shows similar volatility (2W–3L). No injuries reported for either team. Home advantage and Dixon-Coles' Poisson foundation justify modest home bias, but the component disagreement and both teams' inconsistency warrant conservative adjustment: small downward shift to pH (−0.9pp) and slight draw/away uptick to reflect uncertainty. Friendly con
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:48 AM
5decd4d80d06cd96ee3e906720a83e8e79e777cfcd58f96598ab0b5b81274673
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.35 — 1.14
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +46 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.26 — 1.52
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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