Friendlies · Friendly International
Australiavs
Switzerland
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Australia
60%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Switzerland
18%
Model pick: Australia
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 60% (T−48h) to 60% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.61, but sharp disagreement between Elo (0.33 pH) and xG (0.32 pH) signals low conviction. Switzerland's recent form is notably stronger (5 consecutive wins, +11 GD) vs Australia's mixed record (3W-1L, +2 GD), and xG's away-favoring lean reflects this. Small downward adjustment to pH (−2pp) and modest lift to pA (+1.5pp) to reflect Switzerland's superior recent trajectory and away-team strength, while respecting the baseline's Dixon-Coles anchor. No injuries to either squad. Friendly context and neutral venue reduce home advan
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:59 PM
8763de199ef52385bec45f32edc8e329ed161214bdc53d4fe24bc8bf3939a14a
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.40 — 1.07
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +64 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.39 — 1.66
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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