Skip to main content
← All predictions

Friendlies · Friendly International

Ecuador crestEcuadorvsGuatemala crestGuatemala

Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field,

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Ecuador

73%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

Guatemala

7%

Model pick: Ecuador

Expected goals: 2.5—0.5(total 3.0)
Upset risk: 6/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%73%73%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 73% (T−48h) to 73% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which shows strong home conviction (pH 0.811). However, Elo disagrees sharply (pH 0.389, pA 0.183), signaling structural uncertainty. Ecuador's recent form is draw-heavy (3 draws in last 5) with low goal output, while Guatemala shows volatility (2W-2L in last 5 friendlies). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, the component disagreement argues for conservative anchoring near baseline; modest upward adjustment to pA (+0.6pp) and expectedGoalsAway (+0.10) reflects Guatemala's recent offensive moments and Elo's caution,

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:41 PM

d2039791443797429ca3a70d923e1aa4b1fde09ab6b96291ed28c50c848d57b1

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 73%D 21%A 6%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 81%D 16%A 3%

xG: 2.54 — 0.45

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 39%D 43%A 18%

Elo gap: +131 pts

xG-Poisson

H 76%D 16%A 8%

Expected goals: 2.32 — 0.63

LLM contextual review

H 72%D 21%A 7%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T12:00:41.992Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

c8bb5ff2dddba7d2456b4d52bb010bca927fd1e133fdf6a16707f7c1c3daf247
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →