Eredivisie · Round of 16
Rodavs
Waalwijk
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET · Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Roda
28%
Draw
Draw
24%
Away
Waalwijk
48%
Model pick: Waalwijk
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Roda shows modest recent form (3W-1D-1L) with solid home record, while Waalwijk is inconsistent (2W-2D-1L) and weaker away. However, component models diverge sharply (Elo favors home at 31.7%, Dixon-Coles at 25.7%, xG at 29.5%), signaling low conviction. Injury counts are elevated for both teams but appear to include academy/fringe players per API note; no named star forwards listed as out. Baseline already reflects these dynamics. Small upward adjustment to home win probability (+2.7pp) and xG reflects Roda's home advantage and Waalwijk's away fragility, but confidence is low given model disa
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:45:51 AM
aba8be19f537cab2492a909a6493d56360c433aeaccad59fa0c29458315ec52e
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.00 — 2.83
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +47 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.71 — 2.24
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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