Friendlies · Friendly International
Albaniavs
Luxembourg
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET · Air Albania Stadium, Tirana
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Albania
46%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Luxembourg
25%
Model pick: Albania
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 46% (T−48h) to 46% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Albania shows strong recent form (3 wins in last 5, clean sheets in 2 of last 3) and home advantage at a neutral-venue-coded stadium; Luxembourg is in sharp decline (4 losses in last 5, 0 goals in 3 of those). Dixon-Coles (81% weight) and Elo agree on home favouritism; xG model is an outlier and likely underweights recent momentum. Modest upward adjustment to pH (+2.3pp) and xG reflects form edge, but component disagreement and friendly-match volatility warrant conservative confidence (3/5). No injuries to either squad.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:52 AM
172d4af165bf71dea2a13e860d5f7dc8bad47c3d0e7a7a83c4bd4f0f4a0ae742
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.23 — 0.86
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +122 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.74 — 0.83
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:52.518Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.