Friendlies · Friendly International
Venezuelavs
Türkiye
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET · Chase Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Venezuela
31%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Türkiye
44%
Lean: Türkiye
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 31% (T−48h) to 31% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Venezuela in severe form collapse (0 goals in last 3 away matches, 4 losses in 5); Türkiye volatile but recent away win vs weak opponent. Component models sharply disagree (xG 65% away vs Elo 29% away vs Dixon-Coles 48% away), signaling low conviction. No injuries to either squad. Baseline anchored by Dixon-Coles (81% weight) appears reasonable; minimal adjustment justified at T−48h pending lineup confirmation. Slight upward tilt to home reflects home-venue effect and Türkiye's inconsistency, but Venezuela's offensive drought and defensive fragility sustain away favoritism.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:30 PM
aed0d8d4b2bfadde44ecf26d4a3ab9d370211522b5dd99a8eca812c309c98f84
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.44 — 1.82
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: -17 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.91 — 2.11
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:30.203Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.