Friendlies · Friendly International
Denmarkvs
Ukraine
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET · Odense Isstadion, Odense
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Denmark
67%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
Ukraine
12%
Model pick: Denmark
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 67% (T−48h) to 67% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows strong home conviction (0.757 pH), supported by Denmark's recent form: 4 wins in last 5, including dominant 6-0 and 5-0 scorelines. However, Elo (0.19 weight) signals material disagreement, showing only 0.332 pH and 0.44 pD, suggesting the gap is tighter than Dixon-Coles implies. Ukraine's recent record is mixed (2W-2L-1D) but includes a 5-3 away win vs a top-20 opponent, indicating offensive capability. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, the sharp Elo-Dixon-Coles divergence (66-point Elo diff vs 0.757 pH) w
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 6:00:43 AM
3e4d1f03ba8a69181826e484b413231d1986ebf88196b4665c02d1bbdb7997c5
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.16 — 1.14
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +66 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.91 — 0.98
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T06:00:43.017Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.