Friendlies · Friendly International
Angolavs
Central African Republic
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Angola
46%
Draw
Draw
33%
Away
Central African Republic
20%
Model pick: Angola
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 46% (T−48h) to 46% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Angola baseline already reflects home advantage and superior Elo rating (89-point gap). Recent form shows Angola 1W–3L–1D (poor) vs CAR 0W–3L–2D (equally poor), with both teams struggling to score. No injuries reported for either side. Elo–Dixon-Coles disagreement (352 vs 487 pH) signals low conviction; xG model sits between them. Small upward nudge to pH and xG reflects home venue and Elo gap, but Angola's recent offensive drought and CAR's defensive solidity in draws warrant caution. Friendly context and weak recent form across both teams keep confidence low.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:56 AM
b6447300809bec6aad37ca2cb70893940b5ebf58694bdcd3611af53f5b6011ed
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.58 — 0.97
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +89 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.31 — 0.96
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:56.661Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.