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Friendlies · Friendly International

Russia crestRussiavsTrinidad and Tobago crestTrinidad and Tobago

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET · Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Russia

79%

Draw

Draw

15%

Away

Trinidad and Tobago

5%

Model pick: Russia

Expected goals: 3.5—0.6(total 4.0)
Upset risk: 4/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%79%79%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 79% (T−48h) to 79% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline is heavily weighted toward Dixon-Coles (0.81) and xG (both ~90% home), but Elo dissents sharply (38% home, 43% draw), signaling low conviction. Russia's recent form is strong (4W-1D), but Trinidad & Tobago shows defensive fragility (0-5 loss to Panama, 1-2 to Jamaica). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: marginal downward shift on pH (−1pp) and upward on pD (+1pp) to reflect Elo's draw signal and friendly-match volatility, while respecting the 8pp guardrail. Expected goals slightly reduced to reflect Trinidad & Tobago's recent defens

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:01:25 AM

5ee39f79e3b066de12e352a1c89318e73bedb20b08b47c5800958637527eb17f

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 80%D 15%A 5%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 90%D 9%A 2%

xG: 3.51 — 0.53

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 38%D 43%A 19%

Elo gap: +124 pts

xG-Poisson

H 91%D 7%A 2%

Expected goals: 3.51 — 0.48

LLM contextual review

H 79%D 16%A 5%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 49/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:01:25.969Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

219fa77f7e9c0410ef3b4e54a8b690b3f2e5e6ef7e5916efcec5c1f84573e1b3
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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