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Friendlies · Friendly International

Panama crestPanamavsBosnia & Herzegovina crestBosnia & Herzegovina

Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET · CITYPARK,

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Panama

32%

Draw

Draw

28%

Away

Bosnia & Herzegovina

40%

Lean: Bosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals: 1.9—2.2(total 4.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%32%32%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 32% (T−48h) to 32% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Bosnia away (pA 0.445). Elo (0.19 weight) shows a sharp disagreement, favoring Panama home (pH 0.346, +82 Elo diff), while xG aligns with Dixon-Coles. This component divergence signals low conviction — Panama's recent record shows two wins but three draws in last five, while Bosnia has mixed form (1W–2L–1D–1D). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: slight upward nudge to Panama home (+0.7pp) reflecting Elo's rating advantage, minimal downward adjustment to draw (−0.5pp) g

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:04 PM

615977bbd9d90ff23c20abbb75ff64adb06c6945fd59dcea6fa52c1d600d278c

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 32%D 28%A 40%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 32%D 24%A 44%

xG: 1.84 — 2.18

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 35%D 44%A 22%

Elo gap: +82 pts

xG-Poisson

H 30%D 22%A 48%

Expected goals: 1.51 — 1.93

LLM contextual review

H 33%D 27%A 40%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:04.940Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

6717f515e2bc842ecdf83ff73d916857a96c35c1b21e882039d279810bc9f680
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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