Friendlies · Friendly International
Qatarvs
El Salvador
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET · BMO Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Qatar
33%
Draw
Draw
30%
Away
El Salvador
37%
Lean: El Salvador · close call (5pp margin)
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 33% (T−48h) to 33% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Qatar shows mixed recent form (1W–2D–2L in last 5) with defensive fragility at home; El Salvador is in poor form (1W–2D–2L) but has played tougher opposition. Component models diverge sharply (Dixon-Coles favors away 41%, Elo favors home 32%, xG favors home 34%), signaling low conviction. At T−48h with no injuries and lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest upside to home (friendly venue, Elo's 52-point advantage) offset by Qatar's recent home vulnerabilities. Friendly context and squad-rotation risk elevate upset probability.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:17 PM
80831328ef52eaca0f8c7676a083e8e7a0826ff1d806bd3d2adbc8d28b035033
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.98 — 1.16
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +52 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.87 — 0.81
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 45/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:17.092Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.