Friendlies · Friendly International
Cambodiavs
Hong Kong
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET · National Olympic Stadium, Phnom Penh
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 2 out of 5 confidenceHome
Cambodia
66%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Hong Kong
12%
Model pick: Cambodia
Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 66% (T−48h) to 66% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Cambodia shows strong recent form (4-0 win vs lower-ranked opponent 5 days before fixture) and home-venue advantage in a friendly. However, component models show material disagreement: Dixon-Coles heavily favors home (72%), while Elo is much more cautious (33%) and xG sits in between (52%), suggesting moderate conviction only. Hong Kong's recent record is poor (1W–4L over last 5 matches, including heavy defeats), supporting the baseline home bias. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.8pp) and xG expectations reflect Cambodia's recent momentum and home comfort, with cor
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:37 AM
7e5ea5a8ddf21d012f05f824c0b73a64cc21eebc29dea24e9a77a79147e137ec
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.65 — 0.93
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +60 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.04 — 1.40
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 25/100 · verdict thin
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:37.813Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.