Belarus shows alarming recent form (5 consecutive losses, −15 GD in last 5 matches) but plays at home with a modest Elo advantage (+47). Burkina Faso has mixed recent results but shows attacking threat (6-0 win vs weaker opponent). Component models diverge sharply (Dixon-Coles 50% home vs Elo 32% vs xG 41%), signaling low conviction; baseline blend is reasonable. No injuries reported for either team. Friendly context and Belarus' home venue support a modest upward nudge to pH, but the severe recent form collapse and model disagreement warrant conservative adjustment within ±3pp of baseline.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM