Friendlies · Friendly International
Omanvs
Kuwait
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET · Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Oman
40%
Draw
Draw
32%
Away
Kuwait
28%
Lean: Oman
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 40% (T−48h) to 40% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Oman slightly. Elo and xG models diverge sharply (Elo 36.7% home vs xG 29.6%), signaling low conviction. Oman's recent form shows 2W-2D-1L with modest goal output; Kuwait's form is volatile (1W-3L-1D) with defensive fragility but occasional attacking spark. No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: small upward nudge to Oman (Dixon-Coles anchor) and slight reduction to away win, reflecting Oman's marginally steadier recent record. Neutral venue and friendly context
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:01:00 AM
292a1e7d96c81a4c0f4f182381136e6c53b6755e6a84f5b689f4d60a25440d6e
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.61 — 1.36
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +106 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.21 — 1.55
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:01:00.692Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.