Friendlies · Friendly International
Bahrainvs
Syria
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET · Gloria Spor Kompleksi, Belek
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Bahrain
21%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Syria
56%
Model pick: Syria
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 21% (T−48h) to 21% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Bahrain in severe recent form collapse (0 goals in last 3 matches, 4 losses in 5), while Syria shows momentum (3W-1D-1L). However, component models diverge sharply (xG 72.6% away vs Elo 31% away), signaling low conviction. Friendly context and T−48h uncertainty warrant conservative adjustment: modest upside to home (rest/motivation at neutral venue) and slight downside to away (regression risk after hot streak), staying within ±8pp of baseline.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:23 AM
b3128f5b99bf126bae0a4b2b0e0c490f9e80b53bddc02cfed42bd0e819688e0c
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.19 — 2.31
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: -39 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.96 — 2.61
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:00:23.637Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.