Friendlies · Friendly International
Congo DRvs
Chile
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET · Estadio Municipal de La Linea, Cadiz
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Congo DR
71%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
Chile
8%
Model pick: Congo DR
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 71% (T−48h) to 71% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Congo DR home. However, Elo (0.19 weight) signals much tighter contest (369% vs 198% away), reflecting Chile's stronger historical strength. Recent form shows Congo DR 3W-2L vs Chile 2W-2D-1L, but Chile's wins are more recent (Nov 2025) and against stronger opposition (codes 4, 30). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineup uncertainty, the sharp Elo disagreement warrants modest downward adjustment to home win and modest upward to away, staying within ±8pp guardrails. Friendly context and neutral-ish venue (Spain)
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:00:51 AM
4088e1e000bf42ebe68c11141551fce9d2708f50e51e7a9f6dc9ea26bc9e2bdc
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.22 — 0.38
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +108 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.72 — 0.45
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:00:51.466Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.