Friendlies · Friendly International
Saudi Arabiavs
Senegal
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET · Toyota Field,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Saudi Arabia
20%
Draw
Draw
19%
Away
Senegal
60%
Model pick: Senegal
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 20% (T−48h) to 20% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Senegal's recent form is dramatically stronger (8-0, 4-0, 5-0 wins vs Saudi Arabia's mixed 1W-1L-3D), but the Elo model (14pp advantage to Saudi Arabia) and Dixon-Coles disagree sharply on the magnitude of away dominance. At T−48h with no injuries and high model disagreement, conservative adjustment only: modest upward shift to home pH (+2.2pp) reflecting Elo's structural view and home-venue stability, slight downward shift to pA (−0.9pp) to acknowledge recent-form volatility in friendlies. Low confidence due to component divergence; moderate upset risk given Senegal's offensive momentum.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:14 PM
22451a6bf807fd7e27724e344ddd1f6dc8c34165feae0ee9dd1e877365f64a14
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.59 — 3.15
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +14 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.14 — 2.48
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 52/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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