Friendlies · Friendly International
Azerbaijanvs
San Marino
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Azerbaijan
80%
Draw
Draw
14%
Away
San Marino
6%
Model pick: Azerbaijan
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 80% (T−48h) to 80% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows extreme home conviction (0.919 pH), but Elo's sharp disagreement (0.335 pH, 69-point Elo diff) signals model uncertainty. Both teams show poor recent form in competitive play, but Azerbaijan's home record and San Marino's consistent heavy defeats support a home lean. Friendly context and 7-month gap since last competitive fixture introduce noise; modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA reflects this uncertainty while respecting the baseline's strong statistical signal.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:01:29 AM
cbce6d2fbbddab301b76ec7d809102523152e07c924b7032b8c9634b5956dba9
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 4.03 — 0.62
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +69 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.63 — 0.96
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:01:29.707Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.