Friendlies · Friendly International
Kosovovs
Andorra
Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET · Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kosovo
64%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Andorra
15%
Model pick: Kosovo
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 64% (T−48h) to 64% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and strongly favors home; Elo is much more cautious (pH 0.37), suggesting structural disagreement about Kosovo's true strength. Recent form shows Kosovo 3W-1D-1L with mixed quality (beat rank-5 twice, lost 0-4 to rank-15); Andorra 3W-1D-1L in friendlies but weaker UEFA ranking. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative small downward adjustment to pH (−1.8pp) and modest upward to pD/pA reflects Elo's skepticism and friendly-match volatility; baseline xG weighting is zero, suggesting limited recent data. Confiden
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 6:00:47 AM
7464611291a21f89e83ce957c38a9cfd3c443d812959ad72774e9583a7014e25
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.24 — 0.81
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +110 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.31 — 0.79
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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