Friendlies · Friendly International
Croatia U21vs
Republic of Ireland U21
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Croatia U21
72%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Republic of Ireland U21
6%
Model pick: Croatia U21
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 72% (T−48h) to 72% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows strong home conviction (0.818 pH), supported by Croatia U21's recent 4-game winning streak with clean sheets. However, Elo (0.19 weight) signals much tighter odds (0.344 pH), suggesting the model sees structural parity. xG sits between them (0.691 pH). At T−48h with no lineup data and a friendly context (lower stakes, potential rotation), the sharp Elo disagreement warrants conservative adjustment: modest downward shift on pH (−1.8pp) and upward on pA (+1.1pp) to reflect uncertainty. Ireland's recent form is poor (two consecutive away
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:25 AM
dc40114e573be1aa19845f35cca766d7a722a28e97fdb8388ddf7ec55388bddf
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.28 — 0.29
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +79 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.85 — 0.54
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 42/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:25.967Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.