Friendlies · Friendly International
Rwandavs
Comoros
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Rwanda
67%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Comoros
11%
Model pick: Rwanda
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 67% (T−48h) to 67% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and strongly favors Rwanda (0.753 pH), but Elo (0.19 weight) is sharply bearish on the home side (0.337 pH), signaling model disagreement and low conviction. Rwanda's recent form is mixed (2W–3L over 5 games, including a 4–0 win but also three shutout losses); Comoros has won 3 of last 5 but mostly against weaker opponents. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, we make only modest downward adjustments to pH (−0.9pp) and upward to pA (+0.4pp) to reflect Elo's caution and the volatility in Rwanda's recent record, while sta
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:34 AM
47d80c8dab03f4be788ea419736bff256cb5f73bb9d3029077e15cd47fd6cb93
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.94 — 0.41
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +72 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.52 — 0.67
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 42/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:34.618Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.