Friendlies · Friendly International
Gibraltarvs
Cayman Islands
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET · Europa point stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Gibraltar
64%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Cayman Islands
15%
Model pick: Gibraltar
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 64% (T−48h) to 64% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Gibraltar baseline is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), but Elo and xG models diverge sharply (Elo 29%, xG 29% vs DC 73% home), signaling low conviction. Gibraltar's recent form is dire (5 straight losses, 1 goal in last 5 games), but Cayman Islands' form is mixed and recent (last competitive match June 2025). At T−48h with no injuries and high model disagreement, conservative small downward adjustment to pH (−1.4pp) and modest upward to pA (+0.7pp) reflects Gibraltar's poor trajectory while respecting the baseline's structural confidence in home advantage.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:38 AM
83be1298f3bb93d4871e7311567743a5fdfe9d75523789dc68d03c940ad4b870
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.26 — 0.74
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +12 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.13 — 1.48
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 41/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:38.736Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.