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Friendlies · Friendly International

Equatorial Guinea crestEquatorial GuineavsComoros crestComoros

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Equatorial Guinea

41%

Draw

Draw

36%

Away

Comoros

23%

Lean: Equatorial Guinea · close call (5pp margin)

Expected goals: 1.3—0.9(total 2.3)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%41%41%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 41% (T−48h) to 41% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Equatorial Guinea shows modest recent form (2W–2D–1L) with low-scoring patterns; Comoros has volatile results (2W–2L–1D) including a 4–4 draw and 4–0 win, suggesting inconsistency. Elo and xG models diverge meaningfully (Elo favors draw at 43.8%, xG favors away at 27.7%), signaling low conviction. No injuries reported for either side. Baseline ensemble (81% Dixon-Coles weight) is well-anchored; minor upward nudge to home win and slight downward to draw reflects Equatorial Guinea's home venue advantage in a friendly, but adjustment is conservative given model disagreement and the provisional na

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:01:03 AM

f7348a36d6f48507754ea4e84ef48aafbf53dbf10fc1374f476e88d7e7ea9978

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 40%D 36%A 23%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 42%D 34%A 24%

xG: 1.32 — 0.95

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 34%D 44%A 22%

Elo gap: +77 pts

xG-Poisson

H 40%D 32%A 28%

Expected goals: 1.02 — 0.80

LLM contextual review

H 41%D 36%A 24%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 46/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T06:01:03.371Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

bc9a0ba841bb6909359c74e71fdb0cff290c0c856273aafd5fe02917537f4c01
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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