Friendlies · Friendly International
Moldova U21vs
Georgia U21
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET · Nisporeni stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Moldova U21
42%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Georgia U21
30%
Lean: Moldova U21
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 42% (T−48h) to 42% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Moldova U21 shows alarming recent form (4 losses in last 5, including 0–4 and 0–2 defeats), but Georgia U21 is also inconsistent (2 draws, 2 losses in last 4). Dixon-Coles (81% weight) anchors the blend toward home; Elo and xG diverge sharply (Elo favors draw at 44%, xG heavily favors away at 45%), signaling low conviction. No injuries reported for either team. At T−48h with U21 friendlies, squad rotation and lineup uncertainty are high; conservative hold near baseline is warranted. Modest upward tick to pH reflects home-venue advantage in a low-information environment.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 6:01:08 AM
9002a8c1b9a94b7fd9d671cfc35d6e3de98ee610b94ecdd05e725d8146f72bed
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.05 — 1.70
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +13 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.59 — 1.87
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
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