Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.725, but Elo's sharp disagreement (0.387) and xG's moderate skepticism (0.544) signal low conviction. Myanmar's recent form is mixed (1W–2L in last 5), while Guam just suffered a heavy 1–5 loss to a strong opponent (3 days ago), which may depress their away performance. No injuries on either side. Small downward adjustment to pH (−2pp) and modest upward to pA (+0.7pp) to reflect Guam's recent shock loss and the component disagreement; baseline is already conservative relative to Dixon-Coles' signal, so staying close to ensemb

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM