Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Palestine home win. However, Elo and xG both show material disagreement (Elo 31% pH, xG 31% pH), signaling low conviction. Palestine's recent form is poor (3 losses in last 5, all away but including 0-3 and 0-1 scorelines), while Kenya shows modest consistency (3W-2D in recent AFCON qualifiers). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, the sharp model disagreement argues for minimal deviation from baseline; small +0.5pp to pH reflects home-venue stability, −0.3pp to pD and pA as a wash rebalance.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM