Friendlies · Friendly International
Philippinesvs
Myanmar
Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET · Rizal Memorial Stadium, Manila
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Philippines
62%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Myanmar
15%
Model pick: Philippines
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 62% (T−48h) to 62% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.682, supported by Philippines' home record (3W-2D in last 5). However, Elo (0.19 weight) signals much tighter contest (pH 0.374, Elo diff +114), and xG model leans away (pA 0.296), suggesting model disagreement on true strength gap. Philippines' recent form is solid but includes two draws; Myanmar showed resilience with a March win but faces a poor away record. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest downward shift on pH (−0.008pp) and upward on pA (+0.005pp) to reflect E
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:00:46 AM
d6fe09cec6ffd7082ebc51af269c0e1cd83915edc621f1f2364dfe1074e02ba1
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.87 — 1.30
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +114 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.59 — 1.97
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 43/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:00:46.667Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.