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Friendlies · Friendly International

Ethiopia crestEthiopiavsMalawi crestMalawi

Kickoff: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Ethiopia

50%

Draw

Draw

37%

Away

Malawi

13%

Model pick: Ethiopia

Expected goals: 1.0—0.3(total 1.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%50%50%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 50% (T−48h) to 50% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Baseline is well-anchored by strong Dixon-Coles/xG agreement (pH ~0.50). Elo's 69-point advantage and 33.5% home win probability suggest structural uncertainty in the rating gap. Ethiopia's recent form is mixed (2W–3L, last win away vs lower-ranked opponent), while Malawi shows resilience in draws but struggles in competitive matches. No injuries reported for either side. At T−48h with friendly context and limited recent data clarity, conservative hold near baseline with marginal downward tilt to home win (−0.6pp) reflecting Elo's caution and Malawi's modest away resilience.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/7/2026, 12:01:10 AM

d60fd5b2c37cec280f6d679ce692b5b3ffb08cd52155348c3a8d909fca6400af

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 50%D 37%A 13%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 54%D 35%A 11%

xG: 0.97 — 0.26

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 34%D 44%A 23%

Elo gap: +69 pts

xG-Poisson

H 50%D 37%A 12%

Expected goals: 0.95 — 0.32

LLM contextual review

H 50%D 38%A 13%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 49/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-07T00:01:10.532Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

54751a28276906280838fc7b71b0a119097c8e8c672523f8d87621dc4f7f7210
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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