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J1 League · 19th place

JEF United Chiba crestJEF United ChibavsAvispa Fukuoka crestAvispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET · Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

JEF United Chiba

35%

Draw

Draw

27%

Away

Avispa Fukuoka

38%

Lean: Avispa Fukuoka · close call (3pp margin)

Expected goals: 1.9—2.0(total 4.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%35%35%35%?T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 35% (T−48h) to 35% (Pre-match) → 0pp · 1 stage still to come

Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and xG align closely on away lean (41–43% pA). Elo's 44% draw and 30% home are outliers, likely reflecting rating lag. JEF's recent form is poor (1W–3L in last 5, including three consecutive losses March 14–18), while Avispa shows stabilization (1W–2D–2L). Home venue provides modest offset. No injuries on either side. Adjustment is minimal (+1.3pp home, −0.8pp draw, −0.5pp away) to reflect JEF's home-ground advantage and slight recent momentum recovery, while respecting the models' consensus away lean and the low conviction from Elo disagreement

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

Pre-match stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 2:00:10 AM

ace19ebf99739c2c64a776d59dde91d79c5b5a2b48eb37c8cfa36c5015aa0d4f

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 34%D 28%A 38%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 35%D 24%A 41%

xG: 1.91 — 2.06

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 30%D 44%A 26%

Elo gap: +28 pts

xG-Poisson

H 33%D 24%A 43%

Expected goals: 1.40 — 1.62

LLM contextual review

H 36%D 27%A 38%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:21.894Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

3a3632e93e32c6d1f59169f64196edc5f72094280489b8f0cf2e7566b28a3901
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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