J1 League · Final
Kashimavs
Vissel Kobe
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET · Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kashima
25%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Vissel Kobe
50%
Model pick: Vissel Kobe
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 23% (T−48h) to 25% (Pre-match) ↑ 2pp · 1 stage still to come
Sharp disagreement between Dixon-Coles (favoring away) and Elo (favoring home by 98 points) signals low conviction; xG model absent. Kashima's recent form is stronger (4W-1D vs Kobe's 4W-1D, but Kashima's wins more decisive), and home advantage in a final carries weight. However, Kobe's away record and attacking output (11 goals in last 5) remain threatening. No injuries on either side. Adjusted modestly toward home (+5.9pp pH, −5pp pA) from baseline, staying within bounds and respecting model disagreement.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
Pre-match stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 2:00:16 AM
0eecb1bbfe55cc8f744f6aba284bd651901d6f1197368f1105d01174e3a3f1bf
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.52 — 2.62
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +98 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.59 — 1.06
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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