J1 League · 3rd place
FC Tokyovs
Cerezo Osaka
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
FC Tokyo
53%
Draw
Draw
26%
Away
Cerezo Osaka
21%
Model pick: FC Tokyo
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 53% (T−48h) to 53% (Pre-match) → 0pp · 1 stage still to come
FC Tokyo shows stronger recent form (3W-2D vs Cerezo's 1W-2D-2L over last 5), with home advantage at Ajinomoto. Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble and aligns with form trend. Elo's 100-point gap and 36% pH seems outdated given recent convergence; xG's 28% pA is an outlier. No injuries on either side. Modest +2pp home lift from form and venue; slight -1pp draw reduction reflecting Tokyo's attacking momentum. Confidence moderate due to model disagreement on draw probability.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
Pre-match stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 2:00:21 AM
061a4b9004cb20229e23fc3dea4ee37efb1e0e15b52b0c82bcff8edf49bb0ac2
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.45 — 1.55
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +100 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.71 — 1.23
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:31.611Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.