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J1 League · 5th place

Machida Zelvia crestMachida ZelviavsNagoya Grampus crestNagoya Grampus

Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · Machida GION Stadium, Machida

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Machida Zelvia

56%

Draw

Draw

27%

Away

Nagoya Grampus

17%

Model pick: Machida Zelvia

Expected goals: 2.3—1.1(total 3.4)
Upset risk: 5/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%55%55%56%?T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 55% (T−48h) to 56% (Pre-match) ↑ 1pp · 1 stage still to come

Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors the baseline at pH 0.552. Component models show material disagreement: Elo is significantly more bullish on draws (0.44) and away wins (0.227), while xG leans toward away upside (0.263 pA). Recent form is mixed for both teams—Machida has won 2 of last 5 but lost 0-3 at home; Nagoya shows volatility (5-1 and 3-0 wins offset by losses). No injuries on either side. Given the sharp Elo–xG divergence and modest recent-form signals, small adjustments only: slight uptick to pH (Machida's home record and Dixon-Coles weight) and marginal xG l

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

Pre-match stage hash · locked 6/6/2026, 3:00:13 AM

12d2c333b8f24a40b515e6a237ddd40f1afdd2ff2ffda01632a53ba4035a37b3

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 55%D 28%A 17%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 60%D 24%A 16%

xG: 2.24 — 1.12

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 33%D 44%A 23%

Elo gap: +66 pts

xG-Poisson

H 48%D 26%A 26%

Expected goals: 1.54 — 1.06

LLM contextual review

H 56%D 27%A 17%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:36.838Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

db6a738480f7d5258ffeec241bc2e1702a1f631ef928c1d84a33f6a4faf7742d
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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