J1 League · 11th place
Urawavs
Fagiano Okayama
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET · Saitama Stadium, Saitama
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Urawa
45%
Draw
Draw
28%
Away
Fagiano Okayama
27%
Model pick: Urawa
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 45% (T−48h) to 45% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Urawa's recent form is poor (1W–2D–2L over last 5, conceding 7 in last two matches), but the baseline already reflects this via Dixon-Coles dominance (81% weight). Elo's sharp disagreement (31.5% pH vs 47.8% DC) signals low conviction; xG aligns with DC. No injuries on either side. Home advantage and Urawa's marginal xG edge (+0.49) justify a modest +0.8pp pH lift, with corresponding small reductions to pD and pA. Confidence is low given form volatility and model disagreement.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:44 AM
0ac2ef8543acf684a268311469ef66aafa83255abad471ca4c58a69258e87cf3
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.80 — 1.33
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +45 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.43 — 1.03
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:44.943Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.