Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors Gamba away (61.8% pA). Elo disagrees sharply (23.1% pA, +61 Elo diff favoring Tokyo), signaling low conviction. Recent form shows Tokyo struggling at home (1W–3L–1D last 5) while Gamba mixed but with a recent away win vs stronger opposition. No injuries to either squad. Given component disagreement and Tokyo's poor home form, modest upward adjustment to pH (+1.4pp) and downward to pA (−1.0pp) is warranted, but staying well within ±8pp guardrails. Confidence is low (2/5) because the models fundamentally disagree on team s

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM