J1 League · 13th place
Yokohama F. Marinosvs
Shimizu S-pulse
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET · Nissan Stadium, Yokohama
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Yokohama F. Marinos
46%
Draw
Draw
28%
Away
Shimizu S-pulse
26%
Model pick: Yokohama F. Marinos
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 46% (T−48h) to 46% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline ensemble is heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which favors home. Elo (0.19) shows sharp disagreement, preferring draw (44%) and penalizing home (33%), suggesting model uncertainty. Recent form is mixed for both teams: Yokohama volatile (2W–3L, away struggles), Shimizu more stable (1W–3D–1L, defensive solidity). No injuries reported for either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest +0.7pp to pH (home venue + xG alignment) and −0.5pp to pD (Elo's draw signal is likely noise given component disagreement). Confidence low due to component divergence;
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:57 AM
3576adb2951a4f0a1ca1cb7c5c13402303a31ad96d677a0db113d8c31e6655c2
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.15 — 1.61
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +65 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.67 — 1.11
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:00:57.735Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.