Skip to main content
← All predictions

J1 League · 15th place

Kashiwa Reysol crestKashiwa ReysolvsKyoto Sanga crestKyoto Sanga

Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Kashiwa Reysol

84%

Draw

Draw

11%

Away

Kyoto Sanga

5%

Model pick: Kashiwa Reysol

Expected goals: 6.1—1.2(total 7.3)
Upset risk: 6/10

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%84%84%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 84% (T−48h) to 84% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows extreme home conviction (96.9% pH), but Elo's sharp disagreement (35.1% pH, 87-point Elo diff) signals model tension. Kashiwa's recent form is mixed (2W-1D-2L over 5 games, both losses away); Kyoto is in poor form (1W-1D-3L). Home advantage and Kashiwa's superior Elo rating justify modest favorite lean, but the 61.8pp gap between Dixon-Coles and Elo warrants conservative dampening of the baseline. No injuries on either side. Adjusted slightly down on pH and up on pD/pA to reflect model disagreement and avoid overconfidence in a mid-tab

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:02 AM

37d3efdaf2db1a6699e0dda3cc8bf054f541a194a6cce3095fe11398e6b4d927

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 85%D 10%A 5%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 97%D 2%A 1%

xG: 6.35 — 1.06

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 35%D 44%A 21%

Elo gap: +87 pts

xG-Poisson

H 74%D 16%A 10%

Expected goals: 2.50 — 0.84

LLM contextual review

H 82%D 13%A 6%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T00:01:02.311Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

bad2f252ad9902ed2a7156ff269eed77e2ed414871afb0ac7572c2583d108a30
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →