Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.513. Elo's sharp disagreement (0.328 pH, 61-point Elo diff favoring home) signals low conviction; xG sits between them. Thailand's recent form is mixed (2W–2D–1L, volatile scoring), while Korea's last two outings show heavy defeats to a strong opponent (0–2, 0–4) but prior wins were dominant. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: slight downward nudge to pH (−0.8pp) and upward to pD (+0.9pp) to reflect Elo's draw signal without straying beyond ±8pp. Confidence is low due to co

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM